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Fans claim Chainsaw Man sold ‘more than meets the eye’

It is a fact that the list of oricon confirmed that the anime’s first Blu-ray/DVD package Chainsaw Man just registered 1735 copies sold in its first week since its release. But it is also another confirmed fact that, of thirteen stores that distribute these physical discs, four do not report their sales to Oricon, namely: MAPPA Online Store, encouragement, Animega softmap and To Miami.

While it is true that sales in these four stores could increase the sales figures, it is impossible to know if this figure would be “significantly higher”, considering that other popular works of MAPPA as Jujutsu Kaisen and yuri!!! on Ice they did manage to add tens of thousands of copies sold despite the fact that theoretically they fall into the same situation as Chainsaw Man.

However, the above inspired a Reddit post by a user who estimated the number of copies sold that would correspond to the MAPPA Online Store. In order not to get into interpretations, we will directly translate the calculations that the user presented in his extensive post:

  • We are going to estimate the pre-sales figures for the Chainsaw Man BD/DVD using the information from MAPPA’s own website. I doubt MAPPA will ever release sales figures for their online store, so this is the best we’re going to get. All my website analytics data comes from Semrush. As for the data collected from Semrush, it is only for December 2022.
  • First of all, there is a way to make a solid guess about how many transactions there were in the MAPPA online store. Take a look at the payment page below. To make a purchase, we have to click on this green button at the bottom right of the screen. This click will take us to A site that is used to finalize the transaction. We can count how many people have visited this site.
  • Of the 2,560 people who visited, how many completed their purchase? There’s no way to know. Credit card information is very private. Therefore, we will have to make a guess. Is 75% okay with everyone? Okay, it’s 75%. This means that 1,920 payments were processed on the MAPPA website in December 2022.
  • What percentage of the 1920 payments does the Chainsaw Man BD/DVD include in his shopping basket? This question will be answered later. The MAPPA online store is a website that sells many things. It doesn’t just sell Chainsaw Man BD/DVDs.
  • Second, we need to know what percentage of people decided to view a product on this website. Basically, “What percentage of people did not leave (Bounce Rate)?” (The “Bounce Rate” is the number of people who saw the first page and then left.)
  • This means that Mappa store products were viewed by 13.3 thousand clicks that actually viewed a product on the website. Some of these 13.7 thousand people are not unique visitors (as some probably visited the site more than once), so the number should be lower. How many unique visitors are there? Let’s make an assumption. How about 12,000 unique visitors? It looks good? Well, 12,000 unique visitors have clicked on a product in the MAPPA store.
  • Third, how many unique viewers clicked on the Chainsaw Man DVD/BD on the MAPPA online store?
  • We now know that the Chainsaw Man Blu-ray/DVD has been viewed 8.1 thousand times, but what about DVDs? I do not have information on how many times the Chainsaw Man DVD page has been visited (not enough visits for it to appear in the data). We’ll have to make another assumption. I guess there will be a lot of overlap. 900 more visits (visitors who have not visited the BD page). It looks good? OK. the first Chainsaw Man Blu-ray/DVD was viewed by 9,000 unique viewers. 9,000 of the 12,000 unique visitors.
  • 3 out of 4 people who visited the site were interested in the first Chainsaw Man pack. Therefore, we can make another estimate. 3/4 of the transactions on the MAPPA site were for pre-ordering this pack. Of the 1,920 transactions on the MAPPA site, 1,440 were specifically for the first Chainsaw Man package.
  • In summary, our best estimate is that MAPPA sold 1,440 Chainsaw Man records on their website during the month of December. This is the best estimate we can make of sales using the data we have from the MAPPA online store. However, I want to go further. For now, we’re going to get into speculation about all the sales.
  • How many pre-orders were there in other months? October, November (we already have an estimate for December) and January? I’ll provide some graphs so you can make your best guesses. Data for January is incomplete in these charts.
  • The latest data I have is that in the month of November had 4075 visitors. If we follow the same formula that we used for December then: 2292 sales in November. (this is shown in the third image). From all these graphs we can conclude that: November and January were the months with the most pre-sales, since the bounce rate was the lowest and the number of unique visitors was the highest. October pre-sales were probably lower than December’s. January was probably the month with the most pre-sales. MAPPA posted this tweet in January.
  • Volume 1 DVD/BD sales: October(?) + November(2292) + December(1440) + January(?) = week 1 sales + pre-orders. Estimate: October(700) + November(2292) + December(1440) + January(1440) = 5872 bd/dvd sales on Mappa website + 1753 BD/DVDs (other sellers) = 7625 BD/DVD sales.

We can realize that the user makes many estimates and speculations without any supportsuch as the fact of assuming that “75% of the people who entered the MAPPA online store ended up making a purchase“, or what “of the total visits, 88% are unique people and only 12% are re-visitors“. Anyway, it is a calculation without any support that even caught the attention of Japanese fans, highlighting:

  • «It’s funny how crazy foreigners can be.».
  • «This is already a joke, isn’t it?».
  • «Well, Chainsaw Man can boast that his fans do everything they can to make their favorite franchise look good, like start making up numbers.».
  • «Foreign fans, instead of making up numbers, should start buying records, don’t you think?».
  • «It is not that Chainsaw Man is a special case, in none of the other animes does its own official store participate. That is, the sales of Bocchi the Rock! they would be even higher if we count their official store and the other three that do not participate, so that would not change anything».
  • «Well, this guy started adding figures for convenience.».
  • «The foreigners seem more desperate to save Chainsaw Man than the Japanese. They complain that we don’t support the franchises they want, but where is their support?».
  • «It is extremely optimistic to believe that practically every person who has entered the official MAPPA store has done so exclusively to buy the Chainsaw Man album.».
  • «This kind of “sore losers” make Chainsaw Man look even worse».
  • «Imagine that the same criteria were applied to the other franchises of the season? Wouldn’t Chainsaw Man still be at the bottom of the list anyway?».
  • «I love how he does this calculation just for Chainsaw Man. It’s like being desperate to give just this series the edge, but deliberately ignoring that the same criteria would apply to all the other series that outsold it.».

Fountain: Yaraon!

The entry Fans claim Chainsaw Man sold ‘more than meets the eye’ was first published on Kudasai.

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